Munich Security Conference Reports: Thematic Analysis (2022-2026)

The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is one of the world’s most important annual forums on international security policy, held in Munich, Germany, since 1963. The 62nd MSC took place on February 13–15, 2026, at the Bayerischer Hof. Reflecting the Munich Security Report 2026 titled “Under Destruction,” this year’s theme highlighted an era described as “wrecking-ball politics.” Approximately 500 high-level participants attended, including heads of state, foreign ministers, defense ministers, military leaders, and representatives of think tanks. Key focal points included crises in transatlantic relations, the Russia–Ukraine war, Europe’s strategic autonomy, and the reshaping of the global order.

The conference was shaped by the erosion of trust generated by “America First” policies during the second presidential term of Donald Trump. At the previous (61st) MSC in 2025, U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered sharp criticisms of Europe—sometimes interpreted in the literature as disparaging—regarding insufficient defense spending, migration policies, and restrictions on freedom of expression. This year, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio adopted a more moderate but still demanding tone. European leaders, in turn, emphasized reducing dependence on the United States and strengthening their own defense capacities. The analysis below is based on information presented during the conference.

This study draws on MSC reports from 2022–2026. Using eight thematic codes—“Russian Threat,” “China & Indo-Pacific,” “U.S. Leadership & Retrenchment,” “NATO & Transatlantic,” “Rearmament,” “Democracy & Autocracy,” “Climate Security,” and “Multipolarity”—it analyzes five annual reports comprising 1.9 million characters.


1. Transatlantic Relations and the Crisis of Trust


The central focus of the conference was the crisis in transatlantic relations. U.S. criticism of Europe under the Trump administration—including inadequate defense spending, migration policies, signals of partial withdrawal, and threats regarding Greenland—has heightened European security concerns.

In his speech, Rubio called on Europe to “save the common civilization,” demanded greater burden-sharing, and described Washington as “Europe’s child.” He stated that the United States’ destiny is “intertwined” with Europe’s and always will be. Rubio emphasized that the West does not want to be the “polite caretaker of managed decline” and criticized allies for “rationalizing a broken status quo.” Although the U.S. rhetoric toward Europe was more moderate at the 62nd MSC, its demands remained largely unchanged. Rubio also argued that EU states had become overly dependent on external production, failed to manage mass migration, built economic ties with dangerous partners, and neglected national identity.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas responded by asserting that “Europe does not need saving” and announced work on a new European security strategy. She also argued that institutions such as the UN are “outdated” and require reform due to a lack of accountability. Similarly, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the existing order “no longer exists even in its flawed best form,” urging Europe to strengthen independent security and trade ties with Canada, Japan, and India. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared that the time had come to implement the EU’s mutual defense clause (Lisbon Treaty Article 42.7).

A notable shift in the 2022–2026 reports is the decline in references to NATO and collective defense, while mentions of U.S. policy—especially related to Trump—surged. In the 2026 report, U.S./Trump/American policy references reached 400 occurrences, placing them among the most frequently used terms. This suggests that Trump’s second-term policies have strained trust among allies, accelerating Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy.

2. Europe’s Strategic and Defense Autonomy

Debates centered on reducing dependence on the United States and creating a “more European NATO.” Discussions included increasing defense spending, strengthening Europe’s defense industry, and nuclear deterrence.

The idea of a “European Army” resurfaced, with leaders emphasizing that Europe must assume responsibility for its own defense. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius noted that Berlin had increased military spending, a move recognized by Washington. French President Emmanuel Macron stressed the need for a “strong and independent” Europe. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for accelerated defense cooperation with the EU, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez warned that global instability requires Europeans to strengthen their defense capacity.

In the panel “Defending Europe and Supporting Ukraine,” unity was emphasized. Merz alluded to confidential discussions with Macron on European nuclear deterrence within NATO. The report notes Europe faces “detachment issues” and must prepare for possible U.S. withdrawal.

Analytical coding shows that references to strategic autonomy and defense spending increased significantly after the Ukraine war. Defense spending—particularly rearmament—became a central topic in 2025, including proposals to raise spending to 5% of GDP and initiatives such as SAFE and ReArm. This emphasis remained strong in 2026.

3. Russia–Ukraine War and Peace Negotiations

As the war entered its fourth year, Trump’s direct contacts with Russia and pressure on Ukraine to concede territory drew criticism.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported difficult negotiations with the United States, expressing concern about Trump’s desire to end the war “once and for all.” He argued that peace prospects would improve if Europe were included in negotiations with both the U.S. and Russia and stressed the need for credible security guarantees.

Discussions also covered Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics and battlefield advantages. European leaders emphasized continued support for Ukraine but acknowledged the need for greater responsibility should U.S. support decline. Former MSC chairman Wolfgang Ischinger called for increased pressure on Russia.

Prospects for peace remain low, with leaders skeptical about an imminent ceasefire. While U.S. support for Ukraine fluctuates, negotiations involving frozen Russian assets continue. Thematic analysis reveals a notable decline in references to the Russian threat across reports. Mentions of Russia and related keywords peaked in 2023 (646 occurrences) but dropped sharply by 2026.

4. The Disintegration of the Global Order


Participants discussed the U.S. retreat from global trade norms (high tariffs, economic coercion) and the rise of China. In the Indo-Pacific, concerns focused on China’s growing power, allied insecurity, and hedging strategies. The Global South was seen as finding new opportunities, while revisionist powers—particularly Russia and China—were gaining momentum.

The Munich Security Index 2026 indicates a crisis of confidence in democratic governance across G7 countries, with the United States itself viewed as a risk by many respondents. Across five reports, discourse appears to be shifting from a Russia-centric threat perception toward China and the Indo-Pacific.

5. Regional Conflicts and Other Threats

Regional crises in the Middle East (Gaza reconstruction, Israel–Hamas ceasefire, tensions with Iran), Africa, and Latin America (Sudan, Haiti, Venezuela) were discussed. Developments in Syria also appeared indirectly on the agenda.

Hybrid threats—climate security, migration, energy, and food—were highlighted. Findings from the Middle East Advisory Group included field data from Gaza and the West Bank. Report analysis shows that attention to climate security has declined over time, while multipolarity surged, peaking in 2025.

Conclusion

This study analyzes discursive shifts in the global security architecture following the latest MSC in February 2026, based on official reports. Findings indicate a profound transformation in the focus of the international system over the past five years.

Between 2021 and 2023, the dominant agenda centered on Russia’s revisionist policies and Ukraine’s defense. By 2026, however, the discourse had shifted toward Europe’s strategic autonomy and alignment with U.S. Indo-Pacific priorities. Quantitative data and leaders’ speeches suggest that transatlantic relations are no longer defined solely by defense cooperation but increasingly resemble a multipolar competitive environment in which Europe assumes greater responsibility for its own security.

The reorientation of U.S. strategic priorities toward the Pacific has pushed Europe to focus on its own defense industry and strategic independence. Overall, MSC reports demonstrate that threat perceptions are moving beyond a Russia-centric framework toward the construction of a new world order and a redistribution of global power.

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